Decode Diaries: 2024 Week 14
If going for it on 4th down is wrong then I don’t want to be right.
You know how like 15 years ago if you kept pulling transition 3s when you were playing basketball people looked at you like you had three heads and griped about how “that isn’t basketball” and then Steph Curry came to Golden State and started routinely making 3s from somewhere outside of Big Sur and then all of a sudden everyone started doing it and quickly it turned it out that bombing away from 3 is, in fact, basketball?1
I think, Darwin, that this is what the science people call “evolution.”
Similarly, you know how in the NFL it used to be common practice to punt the ball away/kick the field goal on 4th and anything-more-than-the-width-of-a-single-human-hair?
Well, meet Dan Campbell. Wait, shoot. I said his name. Now I have to post this before I can continue.
Sorry, those are the rules around here.
Anyway, where was I….right. So Dan Campbell comes along and just starts going for it on 4th & Whatever because he seems to believe in his team’s ability to get it. Or he’s following analytics. Or maybe he’s just crazy. Whatever. I don’t care why he does it. It doesn’t matter all that much. Brandon Staley was going for it all the time for the Chargers too, and the next thing we know Sherrone Moore is the new head football coach at the University of Michigan.
So the point isn’t so much that DC has more balls than a 1980s Chuck E. Cheese - but don’t doubt that he does - it’s that it keeps working and his team has responded. He’s shown trust in his guys and a willingness to take chances based on that trust. The players see this and in return don’t want to let him down, not just on those 4th down plays, but at all. Ever. In any capacity.
That is how you create culture where there used to be a black void of nothing2.
And as you are all well aware, you knowers-of-ball, pro sports and copycatting go hand-in-paw. Coaches saw Staley going for it and, even if it didn’t work out for him, understood that there finally seemed to be a permission structure in the NFL to do what we’ve all been doing in Madden for years: Don’t. Punt. Ever. Ok, that’s a little extreme, but going for it on 4th and a few from anywhere near midfield should have been less taboo a long time ago and we all know it.
Fans have begun to accept, and even ask for, the risk. Players love the high-leverage opportunities and playing for coaches who have the confidence in those players to go for it when those opportunities arise. Most importantly, coaches are starting to understand they’ll be allowed on the team plane home even if it doesn’t work.
So I guess what I’m saying is, a lot of people are talking today about how Campbell’s last decision to go for it Thursday night was the wrong decision. By the old calculus they probably aren’t wrong. But I would submit to you that we are in the middle of an evolution in the NFL a bit similar to what we saw in the NBA once Curry started bombing away from mid-court. So by that calculus, the new calculus, the calculus that I’m betting will at some point soon will become the accepted calculus, Campbell isn’t wrong, but maybe just a bit ahead of his time.
So I’m choosing to ignore the naysayers today. Not because I’m a Lions fan and I will ride with DC until the last 4th down is played, but because I think the naysayers are stuck in the past and DC is giving us a glimpse of the future.
Players from my rosters I’m reallllly watching this week. Like really:
Braelon Allen: Let’s hope he’s worth the 2nd round pick I paid for him a couple of weeks ago to back up my last naked Breece Hall share. I don’t know what is going on with Hall, but the Jets are an unmitigated disaster and it wouldn’t surprise me if they start shutting people down at some point soon. If I’m about to lose Hall for the fantasy playoffs I’d like to see what I have in Allen and whether he can be the replacement.
Kyler Murray/Justin Herbert: On my most stacked team, a squad featuring Ja’maar Chase, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, AJ Brown, Saquon Barkley, and Alvin Kamara I traded away Jalen Hurts and a couple 1st round picks for Kyler and Breece Hall. I’d hoped the difference between Kyler and Hurts in a 1QB league would be mostly negligible. My thought was I only need a QB to not lose me games. I don’t really need to have one who can win them for me, just one who can get me 20-25 points every week. It turns out both Kyler and Herbert are a little more volatile than I’d hoped. I’m hoping to see one of them go on a run here over the next few weeks and make it easy for me to start him.
Israel Abanikanda: Man, I think I was right about Abanikanda, I was just a few weeks early and had the wrong team. I added him ahead of the trade deadline on a hunch that someone like the Cowboys might snap him up. When the deadline came and went I let him go. Now he finds himself in SF with little more than the ghost of Roger Craig in front of him. Abanikanda checked 78.5/9 boxes in my RB analysis in his draft class, ranking second to Bijan Robinson. Izzy is young, talented, and may now finally have a chance, and in a nice system to boot. I wish I would have held onto him in more places. Patience, darling. Patience.
This week’s manifestation of my dynasty sickness:
I mean, I’m invested in how well Israel Abanikanda looks after being signed off a practice squad. Do we need more evidence here?
Soundtrack of the week:
Quote of the week:
“…but if you’re hunting us, you don’t have to look far. We’re going to be on your front porch when you open your door.” - Dan Campbell.
“I love my coach.” - Me
*Catching my breath* Also, you know how your teachers used to tell you that run-on sentences “were not writing?” Man, they didn’t understand tone and pacing, did they? Guys? Right? Hello?
And yeah, it bit them last year in the NFC Championship Game, but most Lions fans understood that it’s better to lose being who you are than to lose trying to be something else. Not dying on your knees and whatnot.
Not yet! I’m notoriously slow getting to new releases. Probably because I’m old. I assume it’s good?
Thoughts on the new Kendrick album? Assuming you’ve listened to it.